A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
