Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity provided through current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
